What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Carabobo and 1.0 from Metropolitanos, so Carabobo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Carabobo or Draw. This covers Carabobo or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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