Zamora FC v Deportivo Táchira: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 65%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.9 goals from Zamora FC and 1.2 from Deportivo Táchira, so Deportivo Táchira come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Zamora FC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.1 goals (xG 0.9-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 67% of the time on these numbers.

We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.