Degerfors v Vasteraas SK: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Degerfors or Draw 68%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Degerfors host Vasteraas SK at home in an Allsvenskan clash on 28 October 2026. Degerfors sit 14th of 16 with 20 points, three places from safety and only two points ahead of Örgryte. Vasteraas SK are much higher up, 6th with 38 points, five points clear of the team above them and level with the side below. Both clubs are fighting for different goals – Degerfors need points to avoid the relegation zone, while Vasteraas SK are looking to keep pressure on the teams above the top half. The table shows a clear gap in points but the goal-difference numbers are close: Degerfors are –20, Vasteraas SK only –2. The odds of a Degerfors goal are high, and the price of 1.41 matches our view of a tight game.

Degerfors have struggled to find form in their last eight matches, winning only once, drawing once and losing six times. Their most recent results are a 4-0 loss away to Hacken, a 2-1 defeat at home to Kalmar, a 1-1 draw away at Mjallby, a 1-0 loss at home to Hammarby, a 2-0 loss away to Sirius and a 2-0 victory at home over Halmstad. That single win came before a run of five games without scoring, and they have kept just one clean sheet in those eight outings. In total they have scored four goals and let in fourteen, showing a fragile defence and a lack of firepower. The side are coming in on the back of two straight defeats and have had only four days to recover from their last game.

Vasteraas SK have been more consistent, recording four wins, one draw and three losses in their last eight fixtures. Their recent form includes a 2-1 home loss to Halmstad, a 1-0 home win over Mjallby, a 1-0 away defeat to Goteborg, a 2-0 home victory over Malmo FF, a 4-1 away win against AIK and a 1-0 home loss to Sirius. The last three road games have produced two wins and one loss, indicating they can pick up points away from home. They have scored eleven times while conceding only six, kept three clean sheets and have failed to find the net in three matches. Their most recent match, a narrow 2-1 loss to Halmstad, showed they can create chances but were undone by a single goal.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs with both sides finding the net only occasionally. The statistics suggest a tight encounter: Degerfors have a 74 % chance of scoring at least once, while Vasteraas SK have a 69 % chance. Both teams have similar odds of scoring twice or more – 37 % for Degerfors and 32 % for Vasteraas SK. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modest tally, and the recent head-to-head record indicates a match that could be decided by a single goal or end level.

We back Degerfors or a draw at 1.41. The price sits close to our reading of the game and gives us a safety net if the home side manages to hold firm. Degerfors will be motivated to pick up points and avoid the drop, while Vasteraas SK will look to stay in the chase for the top half. If Degerfors can tighten up at the back and find a goal, the draw becomes a realistic outcome. The pick could go wrong if Vasteraas SK dominate and score early, forcing Degerfors to chase and leaving them exposed. A lapse in defence or a failure to convert chances would also tilt the match in favour of the visitors. Overall, the odds and the recent form make a Degerfors-or-draw selection a sensible way to back the lean without needing an exact scoreline.