How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Both teams to score 58%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Hammarby host Sirius in an Allsvenskan clash on 29 October 2026. Hammarby sit second in the 16-team table with 49 points from 25 games and a +31 goal difference, while Sirius lead the league on 55 points and a +24 goal difference. The two clubs are separated by six points, with Djurgården just below Hammarby. Both spots are in the European qualification places, so the match can affect the final order at the top. The numbers suggest Hammarby are the stronger side, but the odds are close enough for both teams to threaten each other.
Hammarby come into the game on the back of two straight wins. Their last eight results, in order, are a 2-0 win away at Mjällby, a 1-0 win away at Halmstad, a 1-0 loss at home to Djurgården, a 1-0 win away at Degerfors, a 3-1 win at home over Brommapojkarna and a 1-1 draw away at Örgryte. In those eight games they have scored 12 goals and let in six. They kept four clean sheets and were held scoreless once. At home they have won two of their last three matches, losing only one. The side played just four days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround.
Sirius have also been in good form. Their last eight results are a 2-1 loss at home to AIK, a 2-2 draw at home with Elfsborg, a 1-0 win away at GAIS, a 1-1 draw away at Brøndby, a 2-1 win away at Örgryte and a 2-0 win at home over Degerfors. That gives them ten goals scored and seven conceded in the run. They kept three clean sheets and failed to find the net once. On the road they have been especially sharp, winning three and drawing one in their last four away games. Their most recent match was five days ago.
The two clubs have met five times recently. Hammarby have won three of those encounters while Sirius have taken two, and none ended in a draw. The games have been fairly open, averaging 3.4 goals per meeting. The latest meeting was on 13 April 2026 when Sirius beat Hammarby 2-0. Given the history of goals and the fact that both sides have been scoring and conceding at a similar rate, we expect another high-scoring affair rather than a defensive stalemate.
Our pick is for both teams to score. The expected goal totals are 1.9 for Hammarby and 1.3 for Sirius, indicating an open game with chances at both ends. The price of 1.59 is shorter than our reading of the match, so it looks attractive. We think there is a 58 % chance this will happen. For the pick to fail, both sides would need to keep a clean sheet – something that has only happened a few times in their recent runs. If the game stays tight and one team dominates defensively, the bet could lose, but the balance of recent form and the goal averages make a double-score most likely.
Recent results
Hammarby have won three of the last five meetings.
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