What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Djurgardens IF and 1.7 from Mjallby, so Mjallby come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Djurgardens IF come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.0-1.7) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 53%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. We only make this about 53%, so it's far from a lock.
