Orgryte v Mjallby: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Orgryte host Mjällby at home in an Allsvenskan clash on 29 October. Orgryte sit just above the relegation zone, while Mjällby are 12th of 16 with 23 points from 25 games and a –14 goal difference. GAIS sit one place above Mjällby, eight points clear, and Kalmar FF are just below, one point behind. Both sides have similar goal expectations – about 1.5 for Orgryte and 1.6 for Mjällby – so the match looks open with chances at both ends.

Orgryte have not been strong in their last eight games, winning only once, drawing three and losing four. Their most recent results are a 2-2 draw away at Djurgården, a 4-2 home win over GAIS, a 3-0 loss away to Häcken, a 2-1 home loss to Sirius, a 4-1 away defeat to Malmö FF and a 1-1 home draw with Hammarby. In those eight matches they have scored ten goals and let in sixteen. They failed to find the net in two games, but six of the eight fixtures saw both sides score, and five contained three or more goals.

Mjällby have also struggled, recording no wins in their last eight outings, with three draws and five defeats. Their latest games are a 2-0 home loss to Hammarby, a 1-0 away loss to Västerås SK, a 1-1 home draw with Degerfors, a 1-0 away loss to Trollhättan FC, a 3-0 home defeat by GAIS and a 1-1 away draw with AIK. They have scored only four goals while conceding fourteen in that span, and they failed to score in half of those matches. The team are coming in on two straight defeats and have had just four days between games, so fatigue may be a factor.

When the two clubs have met in recent seasons, most games have been high-scoring affairs with both sides finding the net. Six of their last eight meetings featured goals from each team, and five matches produced three or more goals. That pattern fits the current statistical picture, which points to an open encounter rather than a defensive stalemate. Both teams have shown the ability to score, but also the weakness to concede, suggesting another lively contest.

Our pick is both teams to score. The chance of both sides finding the net sits at 59 percent, and the price of 1.61 is shorter than our reading of the game. The price looks good for the risk we are taking. For the bet to fail, we would need a clean sheet from either side – Orgryte keeping a shut-out or Mjällby doing the same – which seems unlikely given their recent record of conceding and scoring. We expect goals at both ends and a result that reflects the balanced threat each team poses.