What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Sirius and 1.0 from Degerfors, so Sirius come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sirius to win. Sirius are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-1.0), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Sirius have won two of their last five.
✓Degerfors have won three of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
4 Apr 2026Degerfors 0 - 3 Sirius
21 Sept 2025Sirius 1 - 3 Degerfors
3 May 2025Degerfors 1 - 1 Sirius
1 Oct 2023Sirius 3 - 2 Degerfors
15 Jul 2023Degerfors 0 - 3 Sirius
