How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FC Noah or Draw 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Ararat Armenia host FC Noah at home in the Armenia Premier League on 26 October 2026. Ararat sit third in the twelve-team table with 23 points from ten games and a +10 goal difference. They are just two points behind the second-placed Pyunik and one point ahead of Alashkert FC. Noah sit on top of the league with 28 points, a +20 goal difference and a clear three-point lead over Pyunik. Both clubs are in the European qualification places, so the match could tighten the race at the top and also give Ararat a chance to close the gap.
Ararat’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight fixtures they have won three, drawn two and lost three. The most recent result was a 4-0 loss at home to AZ Alkmaar, followed by a 1-0 away win over BKMA. Before that they fell 3-1 away to Jagiellonia Białystok, drew 1-1 with Alashkert at home, beat Shirak 3-1 away and suffered a 4-1 home defeat to Sparta Prague. In those eight games they have scored 13 goals and let in 16, kept two clean sheets and failed to find the net once. Five of the matches featured both sides scoring, and six had three or more goals. The side played just four days ago, so they come into this game on a short turnaround.
Noah have been in better shape over the same period. Their last eight games produced five wins, one draw and two defeats. The most recent outing was a 1-1 home draw with Pyunik, before they thumped Sardarapat 5-1 away, beat Van 2-0 at home and crushed Urartu FC 3-0 away. They then lost 4-0 away to AZ Alkmaar but bounced back with a 1-0 home win over the same Dutch side. Noah are unbeaten in their last four games and have kept three clean sheets while failing to score in two matches. Across the eight games they have scored 14 and conceded nine, and three of those fixtures saw both teams on the scoresheet. Their last match was eight days ago, giving them a little more rest than their opponents.
When the two clubs have met before the numbers are almost identical. Both sides average 1.4 goals each in this fixture, giving an expected total of 2.8 goals. The chance of Ararat scoring at all is 73 % and of scoring twice or more is 37 %. Noah’s chances are slightly higher – 77 % to score and 42 % to hit two or more. The balance suggests a game with both teams likely to find the net, but not a flood of goals. A draw or a narrow win for Noah looks the most probable outcome based on the pattern of recent scores.
We back FC Noah or a draw. The price of 1.27 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. Our chance that this selection will be right sits at 67 %. For the pick to fail, Noah would need to lose outright, which would require a collapse after a strong start or a surprise burst from Ararat. If the game stays tight and either side takes a point, our selection should hold.
Recent results
FC Noah have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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