Admira Wacker v Kapfenberger SV: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Admira Wacker to win 61%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Admira Wacker host Kapfenberger SV at home in the Austria 2. Liga on 11 September. Admira sit 11th out of 16 with six points from five games and a +1 goal difference. Kapfenberger are bottom of the table, 16th, with three points from five games and a –6 goal difference. The gap between them is three places and six points. Both teams are fighting for survival, but Admira are a little safer, while Kapfenberger are already in the relegation zone. The match could move the table a bit, but the main story is a fight between a side that is just above the drop zone and the team trying to climb out of it.

Admira Wacker have not been very consistent this season. In their last three fixtures they drew 1-1 with SKU Amstetten, lost 2-0 to Rapid Wien II and then beat SKN St. Pölten 2-1. Those results give them one win, one draw and one loss, with four goals scored and three conceded. The run shows they can pick up points at home but also that they are vulnerable to defeat away from home. Overall they have a modest goal tally and a narrow positive goal difference.

Kapfenberger SV have struggled to find any rhythm. Their recent games include a 3-0 loss to Celtic, a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock and a 2-2 draw with SKN St. Pölten. The three-goal drubbing by Celtic and the heavy four-goal loss to Kilmarnock underline defensive frailties, while the draw against St. Pölten gave them a rare point. Their most recent result, the 2-2 stalemate, showed they can score but still leak goals, leaving them with a poor record of three points from five matches.

When these two sides have met before, the games have usually been open with both teams creating chances. The numbers we have for this encounter – an expectation of two goals for Admira and one for Kapfenberger – suggest a similar pattern. We anticipate a match where Admira will press forward more often, but Kapfenberger will still find opportunities to test the defence. It should be a game with chances at both ends rather than a one-sided affair.

We pick Admira Wacker to win. The price of 1.73 matches our view of the game and looks reasonable. Our confidence is about 61 % that Admira will come out on top. For this to go wrong, Kapfenberger would need to tighten up defensively and take advantage of any slip-ups from Admira, turning the match into a low-scoring draw or a surprise win for the visitors. If that does not happen, Admira’s slight edge in quality and home advantage should be enough to secure three points.