Rapid Wien II v First Vienna FC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made First Vienna FC to win 48%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Rapid Wien II host First Vienna FC at home in the Austria 2. Liga on 11 September 2026. The hosts sit 12th out of 16, with six points from five games and a -5 goal difference. One spot above them sits Admira Wacker, while Voitsberg sit just below, one point adrift. The visitors are much higher up the table, sitting third with ten points from the same number of matches and a +3 goal difference. FC Liefering sit directly above First Vienna, and Floridsdorfer AC sit level with them below. Both sides are only a few points apart from the clubs around them, so a win could tighten the race at the top for Vienna and give Rapid a chance to climb out of the lower half.

Rapid Wien II have been inconsistent in recent weeks. They opened with a 2-1 win over St. Pölten, then slipped to a 0-0 draw with Austria Lustenau. Their next two fixtures were defeats: 3-0 at the hands of Celtic and 4-1 to Kilmarnock. The run now reads one win, one draw and two heavy losses, leaving them with a negative goal balance and only six points. The string of conceding many goals suggests they are still finding their defensive shape.

First Vienna FC have been more steady. They began with a 2-0 victory over SV Lafnitz, followed by a 1-1 draw with SC Wiener Neustadt. Their third game was a 2-2 stalemate against FC Juniors OÖ, and they then earned a 3-1 win over SV Horn. Their most recent result, the 3-1 triumph over Horn, showed they can both score and keep a clean sheet when they dominate. Across four games they have collected ten points, scored eight and let in four, giving them a solid +3 goal difference.

When the two clubs have met before, the matches have tended to be low-scoring affairs, with each side finding the net only once or twice. The numbers we have for this encounter also point to a modest total of about 2.7 goals, roughly one for Rapid and a little more than one for Vienna. That suggests a tight, possibly cagey game where a single mistake could decide the outcome. Both teams have shown they can score, but Rapid’s recent defensive frailties may be exposed by a side that has been able to keep opponents to few goals.

We back First Vienna FC to win. The price of 1.91 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which gives them about a 48 % chance of success. The visitors have the better recent form, a superior goal difference and a stronger position in the table. For Vienna to fail, they would need to be caught out by Rapid’s occasional bursts of attack and fail to convert their chances, or the match would have to turn into a very tight defensive battle where a single goal decides. If either of those happens, the price would not pay off, but we think the odds are still attractive for a straightforward win.