What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Austria Wien II and 1.4 from SW Bregenz, so Austria Wien II come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Austria Wien II to win. Austria Wien II are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.4), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.45, which works out at about 41 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn SW Bregenz a draw or better. We only make this about 48%, so it's far from a lock.
