How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Sturm Graz II to win 38%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Sturm Graz II and Rapid Wien II are almost evenly matched on the numbers we have. Both sides are expected to score around one and a half goals, so the total should be just over three. That tells us the game will be open, with chances for both teams rather than a tight, defensive battle.
We do not have any recent results or head-to-head history to look at, so we can only rely on the goal expectations. The numbers are so close that neither side looks clearly dominant, which reinforces the idea of a balanced, attacking game.
Our pick is a win for Sturm Graz II. We think they are a little stronger on the numbers, and we give them a 39 % chance to come out on top. The price of 2.70 matches our view of the match, so it looks like a sensible choice compared with looking for a higher price elsewhere.
The pick could go wrong if the game becomes very tight and ends in a draw, or if Rapid Wien II manage to edge ahead with a single goal. Because the odds are close, we do not hold the view very strongly. A 39 % chance means there is still a good amount of risk, but we feel the price is right for the situation.
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