How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Austria Wien II or Draw 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Kapfenberger SV host Austria Wien II at home in the Austria 2. Liga on 9 October. Kapfenberger sit bottom of the 16-team table with three points from seven games and a minus eight goal difference. They are in the relegation zone, just one point behind FC Hertha Wels. Austria Wien II sit fifth, also on seven matches, with twelve points and a plus two goal difference. They are level on points with SKU Amstetten above them and one point ahead of FC Wacker Innsbruck below. Both sides have similar expected goal totals – 1.6 for Kapfenberger and 1.5 for Austria Wien II – suggesting an open game with chances at both ends.
Kapfenberger’s recent form has been poor. In their last three league outings they lost 3-0 to Celtic, then 4-1 to Kilmarnock and most recently fell 2-0 to Lustenau. That string of defeats adds up to nine goals conceded and only one scored. The run has left them with a low confidence level and a need to find a goal quickly if they are to climb out of the bottom place.
Austria Wien II have been much steadier. Their last three results are a 2-1 win over St. Pölten, a 1-1 draw with Hartberg and a 2-2 draw against Salzburg Juniors. The most recent 2-2 draw showed they can both create and absorb goals, scoring twice while also conceding twice. Over those three games they have found the net six times and let in four, keeping them comfortably in the top third of the table.
When the two clubs have met before the scores have been close, with each side finding the net. The pattern points to a match that will likely see both teams creating chances and both sides getting on the scoreboard. Given the similar expected goal numbers and the high probability each team scores at least once – 79 % for each – we anticipate an open encounter with goals from both sides.
Our pick is Austria Wien II or a draw. The price of 1.38 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so the double chance gives us a wider safety net. We think Austria Wien II have the edge because they are higher up the table and have been scoring more recently, but Kapfenberger can still find a goal at home. If Kapfenberger manage to keep a clean sheet or if Austria Wien II fail to score, the pick would be wrong. The chance of our selection working is about 63 %.
Recent results
Kapfenberger SV have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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