How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made BW Linz to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
SKU Amstetten host BW Linz at home in the Austria 2. Liga on 9 October. Amstetten sit fourth in the 16-team table with 12 points from seven games and a +3 goal difference. They are just one point behind Floridsdorfer AC and level with Austria Wien II. Linz sit on top of the league with 18 points, a +16 goal difference and a two-point cushion over First Vienna FC. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but Linz are the clear leaders and the match could tighten the race at the top.
Amstetten’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three outings they beat Admira Wacker 3-0 at home, then thrashed FC Hertha Wels 4-1, also at home, before suffering a 3-0 loss to Grazer AK on their own turf. Those results give them two big wins and a heavy defeat, leaving them with a run that has produced seven goals for and three against.
Linz arrive on the back of two straight victories. Their last eight games, home and away, contain four wins, two draws and two defeats. The most recent results are a 3-0 win over Admira Wacker at home, a 4-1 home win over Hertha Wels, a 3-0 home loss to Grazer AK, a 1-1 away draw with Tirol, a 2-0 away defeat to Ried and a 3-0 home win over Altach. In those eight matches they have scored 14 and let in seven, kept four clean sheets and failed to find the net in three games. Their last three road games have yielded no wins, two draws and one loss.
We pick BW Linz to win. The price of 1.93 is longer than our own reading of the game, but the numbers still favour Linz. They are expected to score about two goals while Amstetten average just over one. The chance of Linz winning sits at 56 % in our view, and the price looks good for that probability. For the pick to go wrong Linz would need to be shut out and Amstetten to find the net twice, which seems unlikely given the recent form and the goal differences.
Recent results
BW Linz have won three of the last five meetings.
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