How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from LASK and 0.9 from Ried, so LASK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
LASK come into this on five straight wins. Ried come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: LASK to win. LASK are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.9), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Ried only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 67% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.