How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Salzburg to win 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Salzburg and 0.7 from Altach, so Salzburg come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Salzburg to win. Salzburg are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.7), and we make them about 76% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Salzburg have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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