How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from SK Rapid and 1.0 from Hartberg, so SK Rapid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
SK Rapid come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.7 goals in total (xG 1.7-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 73%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Hartberg have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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