BATE Borisov v Naftan Novopolotsk: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made BATE Borisov to win 66%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.1 goals from BATE Borisov and 0.9 from Naftan Novopolotsk, so BATE Borisov come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: BATE Borisov to win. BATE Borisov are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.