How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made FK Vitebsk to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from FK Vitebsk and 0.9 from Belshina Bobruisk, so FK Vitebsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FK Vitebsk to win. FK Vitebsk are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.72, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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