How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Neman Grodno to win 39%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Neman Grodno and 1.0 from Torpedo Zhodino, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Neman Grodno to win. Neman Grodno are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.94, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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