How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Dinamo Minsk to win 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Belshina Bobruisk host Dinamo Minsk in the Vysshaya Liga on 28 October. The home side sit 12th out of 16 with 24 points after 25 games and a goal difference of minus 18. They are only four points clear of the team above them and level with the side below. Dinamo Minsk sit second with 55 points, a plus 27 goal difference and are fighting for a European place. One point separates them from the team above and three points from the team below. Both clubs played four days ago, so the match comes after a short turnaround for each.
Belshina’s recent form has been mixed. In their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two. They began the run with a 1-0 win away at BATE Borisov, then suffered a 4-2 defeat at home to Slavia Mozyr. The next match was a 4-1 loss away to Naftan Novopolotsk. They recovered with a 2-0 home victory over FC Minsk and a 1-1 draw away at FK Vitebsk. In those five games they have scored seven goals and let in nine, keeping two clean sheets. Two of the matches featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in each of those games.
Dinamo Minsk arrive on a much stronger run. In their last eight fixtures they have won six and lost two, with no draws. Their most recent win was a 2-1 away success at Gomel, followed by a 2-0 home victory over Arsenal Dzerzhinsk, a 3-1 home win against Slavia Mozyr, a 3-2 away win at Dnyapro Mogilev, and a 2-0 home triumph over BATE Borisov. The only defeat came 1-0 at home to Dynamo Brest. They have scored 14 and conceded nine in the stretch, keeping three clean sheets while failing to find the net in two games. Their last three away outings produced two wins and one loss, and four of the eight matches featured three or more goals with both sides scoring in three of those.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce goals on both ends. The numbers we have for this encounter suggest a similar pattern – an open game with chances for each side. Belshina’s chance of scoring at all sits at 50 per cent, while Dinamo’s chance of finding the net is 90 per cent. Both teams are likely to get on the scoresheet, and the expected total of three goals matches the recent trend of three-goal games in their runs.
Our pick is Dinamo Minsk to win. The price of 1.31 sits close to our own reading of the match. Dinamo are the stronger side on the goal expectations – 0.7 for Belshina and 2.3 for Dinamo – and they have the better recent form. We give the result a 75 per cent chance of happening. For the pick to fail, Belshina would need to score first and then hold on, or Dinamo would have to miss both of their scoring opportunities and lose a narrow game. Otherwise the numbers point to a straightforward win for Dinamo.
Recent results
Dinamo Minsk have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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