Baranovichi v Naftan Novopolotsk: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Baranovichi to win 56%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Baranovichi host Naftan Novopolotsk at home in the Belarus Vysshaya Liga on 31 October 2026. Baranovichi sit 11th out of 16 with 28 points and a –16 goal difference. They are three points clear of Slavia Mozyr above them and one point ahead of Arsenal Dzerzhinsk below. Naftan are bottom of the table, 16th with 17 points and a –38 goal difference, three points behind Dnyapro Mogilev. The match could move Baranovichi a step away from the relegation zone while Naftan fight to avoid the drop.

Baranovichi’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won three, drawn two and lost three. The most recent result was a 3-1 away win at FC Minsk. Before that they lost 1-0 at home to FK Vitebsk, then suffered a 3-0 defeat away to Neman Grodno and a 2-0 loss at home to Gomel. They drew 0-0 away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk and earlier beat Dnyapro Mogilev 2-1 at home. In those eight games they have scored seven and let in nine. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in four matches. Three of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them.

Naftan Novopolotsk have struggled in their last eight outings, managing two wins, one draw and five defeats. Their latest game was a 6-0 loss at home to Isloch. Prior to that they fell 1-0 away to Torpedo Zhodino, then turned the tide with a 4-1 home win over Belshina Bobruisk and a 1-0 away victory at Slavia Mozyr. They drew 2-2 away at BATE Borisov and were beaten 3-0 at home by FC Minsk. The side have now endured two straight defeats. Across the eight games they have scored eight and conceded twenty. They kept one clean sheet but have failed to score in four matches. Five of those games saw three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open, with goals on both ends. The numbers we have suggest a similar pattern this time. Baranovichi are expected to score about 1.9 goals while Naftan average 1.2. The chance of Baranovichi finding the net is high at 84 %, and they have a 58 % chance of scoring twice or more. Naftan’s chance to score at all is 65 % with a 30 % chance of a double. The overall expectation is roughly three goals in the match, indicating room for attacks from both sides.

We pick Baranovichi to win. The price of 1.68 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which gives Baranovichi about a 58 % chance of victory. The home side are the stronger side on the numbers and have shown they can score, while Naftan have been conceding heavily. For our pick to go wrong, Baranovichi would need to be shut out completely and Naftan would have to find the net twice, which seems unlikely given the recent form. The price looks good for a side we expect to come out on top.