How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made BATE Borisov or Draw 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Arsenal Dzerzhinsk and 1.1 from BATE Borisov, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
BATE Borisov come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: BATE Borisov or Draw. This covers BATE Borisov or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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