What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Belshina Bobruisk and 1.7 from Neman Grodno, so Neman Grodno come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Neman Grodno come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Neman Grodno to win. Neman Grodno shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.7), and we make them about 64% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Belshina Bobruisk a draw or better. We make it about 64% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
