How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Neman Grodno to win 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Belshina Bobruisk and 1.6 from Neman Grodno, so Neman Grodno come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Neman Grodno to win. Neman Grodno shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.6), and we make them about 62% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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