What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Torpedo Zhodino and 0.9 from Gomel, so Torpedo Zhodino come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Torpedo Zhodino to win. Torpedo Zhodino are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Gomel a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 42%.
