What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Naftan Novopolotsk and 1.9 from FC Minsk, so FC Minsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Naftan Novopolotsk come into this on two straight defeats. FC Minsk come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FC Minsk to win. FC Minsk shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.9), and we make them about 55% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Naftan Novopolotsk only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 55% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
