How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Dinamo Minsk to win 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Dinamo Minsk and 0.7 from BATE Borisov, so Dinamo Minsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Dinamo Minsk to win. Dinamo Minsk are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.7), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Dinamo Minsk have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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