How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Slavia Mozyr to win 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Slavia Mozyr and 0.9 from Naftan Novopolotsk, so Slavia Mozyr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Slavia Mozyr to win. Slavia Mozyr are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.9), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Slavia Mozyr have won five of the last five meetings.
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