How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks very even. Both teams are expected to score about the same amount – roughly 1.3 goals each – which adds up to just under three goals in total. There is almost nothing separating them on those numbers, so we expect a tight contest rather than a free-flowing attack. Chances will be few and the match will likely stay close.
Looking at the recent run, Antwerp have struggled, losing four of their last five league games whether at home or away, with only one win. St Truiden’s recent form isn’t listed, but the lack of any big gap in the goal expectations suggests neither side has been dominant. The pattern points to a game where both sides are cautious and finding it hard to break the deadlock.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The expected total of 2.7 goals fits nicely with a low-scoring, cagey affair. The price of 1.46 matches our view of the match and looks good for the chance we see. We feel comfortable with this choice and think it will happen about 70 % of the time.
For the pick to go wrong the game would need to open up dramatically, with both teams creating many clear chances and scoring more than three goals combined. That would require a sudden shift in how they play, which seems unlikely given the recent results and the tight expectation. We hold our view fairly strongly.
Recent meetings
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