What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Charleroi and 0.9 from RAAL La Louviere, so Charleroi come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Charleroi to win. Charleroi are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
RAAL La Louviere have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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