How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Genk to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Genk and 1.0 from Beveren, so Genk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Genk to win. Genk are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.0), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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