St. Gilloise v Lommel SK: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 5. We made St. Gilloise to score 2 or fewer 78%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from St. Gilloise and 0.7 from Lommel SK, so St. Gilloise come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

St. Gilloise come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: St. Gilloise to score 2 or fewer. This is about St. Gilloise's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 78%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.87, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.