What to expect
We expect about 3.7 goals from Bolívar and 0.6 from Academia del Balompie Boliviano, so Bolívar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Bolívar to win. Bolívar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.7-0.6), and we make them about 90% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 90 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.09, which works out at about 92 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Academia del Balompie Boliviano to spoil this. We make it about 90% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
