What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Independiente Petrolero and 1.3 from Guabirá, so Independiente Petrolero come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Independiente Petrolero (Draw No Bet). Independiente Petrolero are favoured here (xG 2.2-1.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Independiente Petrolero defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Guabirá win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 71%: a lean, not a lock.