How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Independiente Petrolero (Draw No Bet) 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Independiente Petrolero and 1.3 from Guabirá, so Independiente Petrolero come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Independiente Petrolero (Draw No Bet). Independiente Petrolero are favoured here (xG 2.2-1.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Independiente Petrolero defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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