How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. We made The Strongest to win 42%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from San Antonio Bulo Bulo and 1.8 from The Strongest, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: The Strongest to win. The Strongest shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.8), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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