How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Real Potosí to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Real Potosí and 0.7 from Independiente Petrolero, so Real Potosí come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Real Potosí to win. Real Potosí are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.7), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Independiente Petrolero have won two of the last three meetings.
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