How it turned out
We projected about 4.9 goals and the game finished with 5. We made The Strongest to win 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.6 goals from The Strongest and 1.2 from CDT Real Oruro, so The Strongest come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: The Strongest to win. The Strongest are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.6-1.2), and we make them about 81% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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