How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Universitario de Vinto to win 39%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Universitario de Vinto and 1.3 from Independiente Petrolero, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Independiente Petrolero come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Universitario de Vinto to win. Universitario de Vinto are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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