How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Zrinjski Mostar to win 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Zrinjski Mostar and 0.6 from FK Velež Mostar, so Zrinjski Mostar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Zrinjski Mostar to win. Zrinjski Mostar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.6), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Zrinjski Mostar have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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