How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made America MG to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from America MG and 1.0 from Athletic Club, so America MG come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: America MG to win. America MG are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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