How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made CRB to win 34%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from CRB and 1.1 from Novorizontino, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CRB to win. CRB are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 36% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.45, which works out at about 41 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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