How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Juventude (Draw No Bet) 68%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Juventude and 0.7 from Fortaleza, so Juventude come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Juventude (Draw No Bet). Juventude are favoured here (xG 1.1-0.6), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Juventude defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Fortaleza have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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