How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 0.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Juventude and 0.7 from Fortaleza, so Juventude come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Juventude to win. Juventude are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.6), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Fortaleza to spoil this. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 51%.
