What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Botafogo SP and 1.0 from Criciuma, so Criciuma come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Botafogo SP come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Criciuma to win. Criciuma shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.0), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.75, which works out at about 36 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Botafogo SP to spoil this. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 39%.
