How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Novorizontino to win 43%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Botafogo SP and 1.2 from Novorizontino, so Novorizontino come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Novorizontino to win. Novorizontino shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.2), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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