What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Ponte Preta and 1.5 from São Bernardo, so São Bernardo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: São Bernardo to win. São Bernardo shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.5), and we make them about 51% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Ponte Preta to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 51%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
