How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made São Bernardo to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Ponte Preta and 1.5 from São Bernardo, so São Bernardo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ponte Preta come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: São Bernardo to win. São Bernardo shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.5), and we make them about 50% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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