How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Juventude to win 50%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Juventude and 0.6 from Atletico GO, so Juventude come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Juventude to win. Juventude are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.6), and we make them about 52% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Atletico GO have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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