What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Juventude and 0.6 from Atletico GO, so Juventude come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Juventude to win. Juventude are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.6), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.91, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Atletico GO to spoil this. We make it about 51% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
