What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Goias and 0.8 from Juventude, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Goias to win. Goias are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 0.9-0.8), and we make them about 36% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Juventude only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 36%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
