What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Nautico and 1.1 from Ceara, so Nautico come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nautico come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nautico to win. Nautico are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Ceara only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 41%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
