How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Ponte Preta and 1.2 from Nautico, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ponte Preta come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nautico to win. Nautico shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.2), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Ponte Preta to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 38%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
