How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Sao Bernardo and 0.8 from Botafogo SP, so Sao Bernardo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sao Bernardo to win. Sao Bernardo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.8), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Botafogo SP to spoil this. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 57%.
